Tropical Storm Helene Gaining Strength, Forecast To Strike Florida As Large, Dangerous Hurricane
Tropical Storm Helene Gaining Strength, Forecast To Strike Florida As Large, Dangerous Hurricane
- Hurricane, storm surge, and tropical storm warnings have been issued for parts of Florida.
- Helene is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by Wednesday in the Gulf of Mexico.
- A landfall as a strong hurricane along Florida's Gulf Coast is likely Thursday night.
- The storm could be large and powerful at landfall, bringing life-threatening storm surges, damaging winds, and heavy rain.
- Strong winds and rain are expected to spread inland across parts of the South into Friday.
- The Weather Channel offers updates through the Morning Brief email newsletter.
Tropical Storm Helene is intensifying and is forecast to become a dangerous hurricane before making landfall on Florida's Gulf Coast Thursday night. Helene's impacts are expected to extend inland, bringing heavy rain and strong winds to the Southeast U.S.
Watches and Warnings in Effect:
Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge warnings have been issued for areas of the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, Florida, and other parts of the Southeast U.S. These warnings mean that hazardous conditions are expected within 36-48 hours. Residents in affected areas should finalize their hurricane plans and listen to local emergency officials.
Current Location:
Helene, the eighth storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, is currently moving toward Cancún, Mexico, and continues to organize, a sign of intensification.
Timeline:
Wednesday: Helene will approach Cancún and Cozumel, likely as a hurricane, bringing strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rain. It will enter the southern Gulf of Mexico, where it is expected to intensify. Bands of rain and high surf could reach Florida’s Gulf Coast, and heavy rain is expected in parts of Georgia and Tennessee.
Thursday: Helene is forecast to reach peak intensity in the Gulf and make landfall on Florida’s Gulf Coast Thursday night. The most likely landfall location is Florida's Big Bend region, but impacts will be widespread. Residents along the coast should monitor the forecast closely for any changes.
Friday: Helene will move quickly northward, bringing strong winds, heavy rain, and potential tornadoes to the Southeast and parts of the Ohio Valley.
Storm Strength and Conditions:
Helene is expected to become a major hurricane due to high ocean heat content in the Gulf of Mexico, which is currently at record levels. This deep, warm water provides ideal conditions for rapid intensification. Although wind shear could increase near landfall, it may not significantly weaken the hurricane.
U.S. Impacts:
Storm Surge:Significant storm surge is expected along the Florida Gulf Coast, particularly in the Big Bend region. In some areas, surge levels could reach 10 feet, higher than those seen during Hurricane Idalia in 2023. Surge flooding may also impact Tampa, St. Petersburg, and Sarasota.
Winds: Helene will be a large and fast-moving hurricane, with strong winds affecting a wide area. Hurricane-force winds are likely along the Gulf Coast, and these winds could reach well inland, causing widespread power outages, downed trees, and structural damage.
Rainfall: Helene will bring heavy rain from Florida's Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley. Some areas may receive up to 12 inches of rain, with flash flooding possible, particularly where storm surge combines with rainfall. Landslides could occur in higher terrain areas of the southern Appalachians.
Final Thoughts:
Helene is poised to become a significant hurricane, with widespread impacts across the Gulf Coast and Southeastern U.S. Residents should prepare and follow the guidance of local authorities.
Jonathan Erdman, a senior meteorologist at weather.com, has been covering weather events since 1996. He is available on X (formerly Twitter), Threads, Facebook, and Bluesky.
Helene is expected to become a major hurricane due to high ocean heat content in the Gulf of Mexico, which is currently at record levels. This deep, warm water provides ideal conditions for rapid intensification. Although wind shear could increase near landfall, it may not significantly weaken the hurricane.
U.S. Impacts:
Storm Surge:Significant storm surge is expected along the Florida Gulf Coast, particularly in the Big Bend region. In some areas, surge levels could reach 10 feet, higher than those seen during Hurricane Idalia in 2023. Surge flooding may also impact Tampa, St. Petersburg, and Sarasota.
Winds: Helene will be a large and fast-moving hurricane, with strong winds affecting a wide area. Hurricane-force winds are likely along the Gulf Coast, and these winds could reach well inland, causing widespread power outages, downed trees, and structural damage.
Rainfall: Helene will bring heavy rain from Florida's Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley. Some areas may receive up to 12 inches of rain, with flash flooding possible, particularly where storm surge combines with rainfall. Landslides could occur in higher terrain areas of the southern Appalachians.
Final Thoughts:
Helene is poised to become a significant hurricane, with widespread impacts across the Gulf Coast and Southeastern U.S. Residents should prepare and follow the guidance of local authorities.
Jonathan Erdman, a senior meteorologist at weather.com, has been covering weather events since 1996. He is available on X (formerly Twitter), Threads, Facebook, and Bluesky.
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